India poised for silver mining benefits: Expert opinions

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India is on the brink of a significant demographic transition, with the working-age population expected to decline and the elderly population set to increase dramatically by 2050. This shift, according to a position paper by the NITI Aayog, will bring about both economic and social impacts that require careful consideration and strategic planning.

Growing Elderly Population

By 2050, over 20% of India’s population will be elderly (60+), up from about 10% today. The working-age population is projected to decline to around 65%, ending India’s demographic dividend phase[1][2].

Economic Shifts

A shrinking workforce will exert pressure on employment opportunities and social security systems. The demand for economic activities will shift, increasing the need for elderly-related services such as healthcare, assisted living, and home care, while demand for child-related services will decline[1].

Pressure on healthcare systems will grow due to a higher elderly population needing care. Family structures, which currently provide financial and emotional support to older adults, will face more challenges, potentially increasing healthcare costs and affecting productivity[1].

Policy and Retirement Challenges

The traditional retirement age of 60-65 will become less viable as life expectancy rises. Flexible work and retirement policies, including potentially higher retirement ages, will be necessary to accommodate longer productive lives and support economic stability[5].

Dependency Ratio Concerns

With fertility rates falling to around 1.29 by 2050 (below the replacement rate of 2.1), the base of young workers is shrinking, increasing the dependency ratio—the number of dependents per working adult—which may slow economic growth and increase social welfare burdens[1][5].

Need for Systematic Interventions

Experts suggest integrating fertility education, revising family policies (including incentives around family size), and investing in healthcare, education, and skill development to mitigate risks associated with population ageing and fertility decline[1][3].

Potential Economic Opportunity

While ageing is traditionally seen as a burden, it can be reframed as an asset if policymakers invest in active ageing strategies, healthcare infrastructure, and redefine social norms around work and retirement[5].

Family's Role in Emotional Care

Families play a vital role in providing emotional care to senior citizens, which has a direct impact on health outcomes, productivity, and healthcare costs[4].

Declining Fertility and Economic Activity

One major consequence of the declining fertility could be a shift in the structure of economic activity, with a greater demand for age-related services and a decline in demand for child-related services[6].

The social security infrastructure and health support system in India is low and will be a concern for senior citizens[6].

Global Comparison

China and India currently have the highest working age populations in the world, but both are projected to see a decline by 2050[6].

In summary, India’s demographic transition by 2050 will necessitate major adjustments in healthcare, employment, social policy, and economic planning to address the social and economic pressures of a smaller workforce and larger elderly population[1][5].

[1] NITI Aayog (2019). Senior Care Reforms in India. Retrieved from https://niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2019-12/Senior-Care-Reforms-in-India_0.pdf [2] World Bank (2021). India Demographic Dividend. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/publication/india-demographic-dividend [3] United Nations (2021). India Population Prospects. Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/ [4] Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (2021). Population Projections for India. Retrieved from https://mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/2021-07/Population-Projections-for-India-2021-July-2021.pdf [5] World Economic Forum (2021). India’s Demographic Transition: Opportunities and Challenges. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/02/india-demographic-transition-opportunities-challenges/ [6] The Hindu (2021). India’s Working-age Population to Decline by 2050. Retrieved from https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/indias-working-age-population-to-decline-by-2050/article35742478.ece

The economic impacts of India's demographic transition by 2050 require careful consideration and strategic planning, as the working-age population is projected to decline, ending the demographic dividend phase.
This shift will bring about increased pressure on employment opportunities and social security systems, due to a shrinking workforce.
By 2050, over 20% of India’s population will be elderly (60+), which will lead to an increased demand for elderly-related services such as healthcare, assisted living, and home care.
Meanwhile, the demand for child-related services is expected to decline due to a shrinking base of young workers.
The traditional retirement age of 60-65 will become less viable as life expectancy rises, necessitating flexible work and retirement policies.
In the realm of finance and personal-finance, policymakers must address the dependency ratio concerns to support economic stability and avoid slowing economic growth and increasing social welfare burdens.
Experts suggest integrating fertility education, revising family policies, and investing in healthcare, education, and skill development as systematic interventions to mitigate risks associated with population ageing and fertility decline.
Investing in active ageing strategies, healthcare infrastructure, and redefining social norms around work and retirement can reframe ageing as an economic opportunity rather than a burden.
Families will continue to play a vital role in providing both financial and emotional care to senior citizens, which has a direct impact on health outcomes, productivity, and healthcare costs.

India poised for silver mining benefits: Expert opinions