Potential surge of measles cases in the U.S. for the upcoming quarter-century due to declining vaccination rates
In the next quarter-century, the U.S. might face a devastating rise in measles cases if vaccination rates fall, a new study reveals. With vaccine deniers occupying high government positions and an alarming number of people remaining oblivious to measles' potential dangers, it's a worrying situation.
Researchers from Stanford University ran a simulation model looking at the impact of plummeting vaccination rates for measles, rubella, poliomyelitis, and diphtheria. In a grim scenario, a 50% decline in childhood vaccinations could trigger a whopping 51.2 million measles cases over 25 years. The same period would also see 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million poliomyelitis cases, and 197 diphtheria cases. The outcome would be dire, resulting in over 10.3 million hospitalizations and nearly 160,000 fatalities.
Even a seemingly minor 10% drop in MMR immunization rates could cause a steep jump in measles infections, with approximately 11.1 million cases in the U.S. within 25 years. Conversely, a 5% rise in vaccinations could mean the country would see just over 5,800 cases. The U.S. needs a vaccination rate of approximately 95% to achieve herd immunity for measles. The researchers estimate current vaccination coverage in their models to be somewhere between 87.7% and 95.6%.
Immunization rates fluctuate across states. For instance, New York had an estimated childhood vaccination rate of 97.7% for the 2023-24 school year, according to the CDC, while Idaho's rate was a meager 79.6%.
Before the measles vaccine was introduced in 1963, up to 4 million Americans contracted the measles each year, and tens of thousands were hospitalized. Around 400-500 people died annually due to the disease. However, measles isn't just deadly – it also triggers "immune amnesia," weakening the infected individual's immune system, leaving them vulnerable to other infections.
The U.S. is currently grappling with the worst measles outbreak in a quarter-century, affecting at least 800 cases in 25 states. Illinois registered its first confirmed case on Thursday, while three people have already died from the disease this year, including two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico.
Parents of one of the deceased children, a 6-year-old girl, admitted they refused to vaccinate her. Despite the loss, they still expressed no regrets, pointing to the survival of their other unvaccinated children. Another family, who lost an 8-year-old girl believed to have died due to something unrelated to measles and poor hospital care, echoed similar sentiments.
Both families championed the views of Children's Health Defense, an anti-vaccine group spearheaded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who previously served as Chair of the Department of Health and Human Services. With Kennedy advocating for the reveal of the "cause" of autism by the fall, many worry about the future of MMR vaccination rates. Furthermore, Kennedy is rallying scientists in the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement and has reportedly been amassing a database of autism cases.
Kennedy's recent remarks questioning the resurgence of various neurological disorders and declining testosterone levels in American boys, as well as suggesting many diseases were new or non-existent during his childhood, have sparked controversy. Some claim Kennedy's focus on teen sperm counts with the language of eugenicists is alarming, given his list of those deemed unfit to serve in the military or "pay taxes."
Kennedy's family history, including the lobotomy of his own aunt, Rosemary Kennedy, due to erratic emotional behavior following her birth, sheds light on the topic. Her existence was kept secret for decades, and her father never visited during her institutionalization, while her mother had no contact for 20 years. This tragic tale underscores the complexities behind the prevalence of neurodevelopmental disorders and the crucial need for proper diagnosis and treatment.
In conclusion, the future of measles prevalence in the U.S. is uncertain, largely depending on vaccination rates. With the ongoing resurgence of outbreaks and increasing skepticism toward vaccines, calls for improved education and healthcare policies are growing louder.
- The study predicts a rise in measles cases in the U.S. over the next quarter-century if vaccination rates decline, with a grim scenario of 51.2 million measles cases resulting from a 50% drop in childhood vaccinations.
- Conversely, a 5% increase in vaccinations could potentially reduce measles cases to just over 5,800.
- The U.S., as of the 2023-24 school year, has states like New York with a high vaccination rate of 97.7% and low rates like Idaho at 79.6%.
- Before the measles vaccine was introduced in 1963, millions contracted the measles in the U.S. each year, and tens of thousands died due to the disease.
- The U.S. currently faces its worst measles outbreak in a quarter-century, with approximately 800 cases in 25 states and three deaths in 2023, including two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico.
- Some parents, despite losing a child to measles, maintain their anti-vaccine stance, supporting organizations like Children's Health Defense, which is run by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who questions the safety of MMR vaccines.
- The future of MMR vaccination rates is controversial, with concerns about declining rates, increasing skepticism towards vaccines, and the emergence of scientific movements like Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) spearheaded by Kennedy, who historically has been linked to questioning the existence of certain medical-conditions and the cause of health-and-wellness issues such as autism and other neurological disorders.
