Decline in Birth Rate Doesn't Affect Desired Family Size, According to Research Findings - Research findings indicate a consistent child-rearing ambition despite declining birth rates
The latest study by the Federal Institute for Population Research (BIB) in Wiesbaden has revealed a concerning trend in Germany's fertility rate. The intended birth rate among adults aged 30-39 has decreased for both women (24% to 28% for women and 28% to 25% for men), leading to a decline in the birth rate from 1.58 to 1.35 children in the 2021-2024 timeframe.
The study highlights several key factors influencing this gap, particularly in the context of international crises and economic instability.
Economic uncertainty and labor market instability have a significant impact on family planning decisions. Germany's labor market challenges, including shortages and competition for skilled workers, create insecurity for families. Mothers often face reduced labor market returns due to caregiving responsibilities, reinforcing gender inequalities and disincentivizing higher fertility.
Gender inequalities in caregiving and employment also play a crucial role. Despite policies like parental leave, women continue to bear most childcare duties, often working fewer hours or lower-paid jobs post-childbirth. This uneven division limits the economic feasibility and career prospects for having more children, widening the gap between ideal and actual fertility.
Social and demographic shifts post-reunification have also influenced Germany's fertility rate. After 1990, fertility declined sharply in the former East Germany due to shifting life priorities, delayed childbirth, and fewer marriages. Although rates have since partially recovered, the overall fertility rate remains below replacement (1.38 in 2023 vs. 2.1 replacement).
Another factor is the discrepancy between fertility ideals and realistic conditions. Surveys show German women typically desire more children (about 2 births) than they have (around 1.4 births). The difference arises because fertility ideals reflect what would happen in ideal circumstances. Real-world factors—such as economic pressures, housing, employment, and social supports—limit actual childbearing, especially during crises.
International crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and climate change negatively impact family planning. The subjectively perceived uncertainty among young adults is a significant factor affecting family planning decisions.
The BIB recommends reliable childcare, affordable housing, and political stability to boost young people's sense of security. According to the study co-author, Martin Bujard, these factors can help realize existing desires for children more often and not postpone them indefinitely.
Carmen Friedrich, a BIB population researcher, stated that having children remains a central life goal for most young people. However, the current decline in births does not indicate a decrease in family orientation, but rather a postponement of births.
The "fertility gap" doubled during the specified timeframe, widening to 0.41 among women. The study focuses on the desires and intentions of adults in relation to having children. The study was conducted semi-annually on adults aged 18-52 in Germany.
In conclusion, the gap between desired and actual fertility in Germany results mainly from economic instability (worsened by international crises), persistent gender inequalities in caregiving and employment, sociocultural shifts post-reunification, and the inherent difference between fertility ideals and feasible family size under current social and economic conditions.
- To address the declining fertility rate in Germany, it is essential to address economic instability, particularly in the context of vocational training and the labor market, as the shortages and competition for skilled workers create insecurity for families.
- In addition to promoting social and demographic shifts post-reunification, policymakers should consider the role of health-and-wellness in family planning decisions, as the subjectively perceived uncertainty caused by international crises significantly impacts family planning among young adults.
